Global equities logged their best two-day run of 2026 this week after the United States and Iran announced a ceasefire on June 14 calling for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway whose months-long disruption had driven the largest oil-supply shock in years. The news sent crude prices tumbling, pushed stock markets to record levels, and altered the inflation calculus heading into the most consequential Federal Reserve meeting in years.
On June 15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 469 points to close at a record 51,671[2]United States Stock Market Index“The Dow Jones Index went up by 469 points to close at 51,671 on June 15, 2026 — a record high. S&P 500 rose 1.7%, Nasdaq surged 3.1% (best day since March 31).”, the S&P 500 rose 1.7%[2]United States Stock Market Index“The Dow Jones Index went up by 469 points to close at 51,671 on June 15, 2026 — a record high. S&P 500 rose 1.7%, Nasdaq surged 3.1% (best day since March 31).”, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.1% — its best single session since March 31. Gains extended further on June 16: the S&P 500 rose an additional 1.83% to 7,567, the Nasdaq climbed 2.87% to 26,631, and the CBOE Volatility Index fell to 16.13 — down sharply from the prior week's peak above 23[1]Economic Calendar — Yahoo Finance“June 16 intraday: S&P 500 at 7,567 (+1.83%), Dow 51,888 (+1.34%), Nasdaq 26,631 (+2.87%), VIX 16.13 (-8.77%), WTI crude $80.27 (-5.43%).”.
- +469 pts — Dow gain June 15, closing at a record 51,671
- +3.1% — Nasdaq gain June 15 (best session since March 31)
- -5% — WTI crude oil drop to ~$80/barrel on June 15–16
- 4.2% — May 2026 CPI year-over-year (highest in three years)
- 3.50%–3.75% — Fed funds target, on hold since December 2025
- $75B — SpaceX Nasdaq IPO proceeds (largest IPO in Wall Street history, June 12)
What did the US-Iran deal announce, and how did markets respond?
President Trump announced the deal Sunday on Truth Social, writing that "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," authorizing the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz[4]US, Iran agree to ceasefire, sending stock futures higher and oil lower“Trump posted on Truth Social: 'The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,' authorizing toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”. Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed the agreement.
Asian markets moved first. Japan's Nikkei 225 surged more than 5%, South Korea's Kospi jumped 5.7%[3]Stock markets soar, oil falls as US, Iran confirm deal to end war“Japan's Nikkei 225 surged more than 5%, South Korea's Kospi jumped 5.7%; ANZ's Khoon Goh: 'The fall in oil prices will provide some relief for central banks around the world.'”, and U.S. crude fell to its lowest since mid-April.
| Index / Asset | June 12 close | June 15 | June 16 (intraday) | | ----------------- | ------------- | ------------------------ | ------------------ | | S&P 500 | 7,394 | +1.70% | 7,567 (+1.83%) | | Dow Jones | 50,848 | +469 pts — record 51,671 | 51,888 (+1.34%) | | Nasdaq | 25,809 | +3.10% | 26,631 (+2.87%) | | WTI Crude ($/bbl) | $85.36 | −5.0% | $80.27 (−5.43%) | | VIX | 19.44 | ~−16% | 16.13 (−8.77%) |
Sources: Charles Schwab[18]Stocks on Track for Positive Week Amid Peace Hopes“June 12 market close: S&P 500 at 7,394.30, Dow Jones at 50,848.75, Nasdaq at 25,809.66, WTI Crude at $85.36, VIX at 19.44, 10-year Treasury yield at 4.48%.”, Trading Economics[2]United States Stock Market Index“The Dow Jones Index went up by 469 points to close at 51,671 on June 15, 2026 — a record high. S&P 500 rose 1.7%, Nasdaq surged 3.1% (best day since March 31).”, Yahoo Finance[1]Economic Calendar — Yahoo Finance“June 16 intraday: S&P 500 at 7,567 (+1.83%), Dow 51,888 (+1.34%), Nasdaq 26,631 (+2.87%), VIX 16.13 (-8.77%), WTI crude $80.27 (-5.43%).”
Not every name benefited. Fox Corporation[14]Fox Corporation to Acquire Roku, Inc.“FOX will acquire Roku for $160.00 per share in a combination of cash and FOX Class A common stock, valuing Roku at approximately $22 billion in enterprise value; expected $400 million run-rate synergies.” (FOXA) tumbled roughly 15% after announcing a $22 billion acquisition of Roku at $160 per share in a cash-and-stock deal, with an expected $400 million in run-rate cost synergies and a projected close in the first half of 2027[14]Fox Corporation to Acquire Roku, Inc.“FOX will acquire Roku for $160.00 per share in a combination of cash and FOX Class A common stock, valuing Roku at approximately $22 billion in enterprise value; expected $400 million run-rate synergies.”. Existing Fox shareholders would own roughly 73% of the combined company[15]Fox to buy streaming device maker Roku for $22 billion“The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027; existing Fox shareholders would own roughly 73% of the combined company.”.
Meanwhile, SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) continued to climb following its June 12 record Nasdaq debut, which raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in Wall Street history[16]SpaceX (SPCX): Rocket Company Launches Historic IPO“SpaceX opened trading on the Nasdaq at $150 per share, raising a historic $75 billion, resulting in an implied valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion — the largest IPO in Wall Street history.”, with shares trading at $177.99 on June 15[17]SpaceX Stock: IPO Date, Share Price & News“As of June 15, 2026, SpaceX (SPCX) was trading at $177.99, up from its IPO price of $135.”, up from an IPO price of $135[17]SpaceX Stock: IPO Date, Share Price & News“As of June 15, 2026, SpaceX (SPCX) was trading at $177.99, up from its IPO price of $135.”.
Why does the oil-price collapse matter for US inflation?
The ceasefire removes the dominant driver behind the hottest U.S. inflation reading in three years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June 10 that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% year-over-year — up sharply from April's 3.8%[5]Consumer Price Index News Release — May 2026 Results“CPI-U rose 0.5% in May (seasonally adjusted) and 4.2% over the last 12 months (not seasonally adjusted).”. Stephens analysts noted that gasoline alone surged 7.0% in May and overall energy prices rose 3.9%, accounting for the vast majority of the monthly CPI increase[6]Stephens Consumer Price Index Update: June 10, 2026“Energy prices increased 3.9% month over month, with gasoline rising 7.0%; yearly increase represents a significant jump from April's 3.8%.”. In contrast, core CPI — which excludes food and energy — rose just 0.2% in May, below the 0.3% consensus forecast[6]Stephens Consumer Price Index Update: June 10, 2026“Energy prices increased 3.9% month over month, with gasoline rising 7.0%; yearly increase represents a significant jump from April's 3.8%.”, and 2.9% annually.
The fall in oil prices will provide some relief for central banks around the world who were worried about the inflation outlook. Focus now turns to the US Federal Reserve, which decides on interest rates this week.
If oil prices hold near $80, energy's contribution to CPI could reverse sharply in June and July data — potentially allowing the Fed to maintain its hold without escalating to a rate hike.
What will the FOMC decide, and why does the dot plot matter?
CME's FedWatch tool showed a 98.2% probability the Fed will hold its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17[7]Warsh Faces His First Test June 17 as Traders Hunt for Hidden Signals in the Fed's Dot Plot“CME's FedWatch tool shows a 98.2% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026. Goldman Sachs has pushed expected rate cuts to 2027.”, keeping it unchanged for at least the fourth consecutive meeting. The rate decision itself holds little suspense. The real market event is the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections — the dot plot — and Warsh's inaugural press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on June 17.
In March, the median dot pointed to a single rate cut in 2026. With headline CPI having since risen to 4.2%, analysts broadly expect the June dot plot to show zero cuts this year. Goldman Sachs has pushed its expected rate-cut timeline to 2027, and a Bloomberg survey found economists expect rates to hold through mid-2027[8]Week Ahead: Warsh's First Fed Storm“Markets now price a 42.3% probability of a move to 3.75% to 4.00% by December 2026. Bloomberg survey: economists expect rates on hold through mid-2027.”. At the same time, VT Markets data showed a 42.3% market-implied probability that rates could rise to 3.75%–4.00% by December 2026[8]Week Ahead: Warsh's First Fed Storm“Markets now price a 42.3% probability of a move to 3.75% to 4.00% by December 2026. Bloomberg survey: economists expect rates on hold through mid-2027.” — a tail risk that may shrink if the oil-price reversal proves durable.
The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections — the "dot plot" — shows each FOMC member's anonymous forecast for the federal funds rate at year-end for the current and following years. It is released quarterly and is widely watched as the clearest window into the Fed's collective rate outlook.
J.P. Morgan Chase's investment strategy team noted the meeting would "likely" produce "an explicit move away from a bias toward easing to a neutral stance on rates"[9]What To Expect at Kevin Warsh's First Federal Reserve Meeting as Chair: 3 Things To Watch“'The Federal Reserve is not expected to move rates in the June meeting... There will, however, likely be an explicit move away from a bias toward easing to a neutral stance on rates.'” — a language shift that could itself move bond markets. The April 28–29 FOMC meeting produced four dissenting votes — the most since October 1992[12]United States Fed Funds Interest Rate“The 8-4 vote marked the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented against a FOMC decision.”, illustrating the divided committee Warsh now must manage.
Who is Kevin Warsh, and what are his priorities?
Warsh was confirmed by the Senate 54-45 — the most divisive Fed chair confirmation in the modern era — and was sworn in as Fed chairman on May 22[10]Kevin Warsh opens first Fed meeting June 16 with rate hold expected“Warsh was confirmed by the Senate in a 54-45 vote and sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026 — the most divisive confirmation in the modern era.”. At his confirmation hearing, he said he wanted "messier meetings" where policymakers could have "a good family fight"[11]Kevin Warsh Opens First Fed Meeting June 16 With Rate Hold Expected“At his confirmation hearing, Warsh said he favored 'messier meetings' where policymakers could have 'a good family fight.' At his swearing-in, Warsh pledged a 'reform-oriented Federal Reserve.'” — signaling a more debate-driven process than his predecessor's. He has also expressed interest in shrinking the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet[19]June 16 May be a Big Day for the Stock Market and Set the Stage for What Happens Next“Warsh has voiced his desire to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, which has soared to $6.6 trillion. Consumer prices rose 4.2% in May — the highest in three years.” and reducing forward guidance. At his swearing-in, Warsh pledged a "reform-oriented Federal Reserve"[11]Kevin Warsh Opens First Fed Meeting June 16 With Rate Hold Expected“At his confirmation hearing, Warsh said he favored 'messier meetings' where policymakers could have 'a good family fight.' At his swearing-in, Warsh pledged a 'reform-oriented Federal Reserve.'”.
- February 2026 — US-Israel military campaign against Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz; energy shock begins
- April (early) — WTI crude tops $112/barrel; first two-week ceasefire is reached
- April 28–29 — FOMC holds at 3.50%–3.75%; 8-4 vote marks most dissents since October 1992
- May 12 — Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, 54-45
- May 22 — Warsh sworn in as Fed chairman at the White House
- June 10 — BLS: May CPI 4.2% year-over-year (highest in three years); gasoline +7.0% month-over-month
- June 12 — SpaceX (SPCX) lists on Nasdaq at $135/share, raising a record $75 billion
- June 14 (Sunday) — Trump announces US-Iran ceasefire; Strait of Hormuz to reopen; Fox Corp announces $22 billion Roku acquisition
- June 15 — Dow +469 pts to record 51,671; Nasdaq +3.1%; WTI crude −5%
- June 16–17 — Warsh chairs first FOMC meeting; rate decision at 2 p.m. ET June 17; dot plot and press conference follow
The Bank of Japan is also meeting this week, with a rate hike widely expected, adding an international dimension to an unusually dense central-bank calendar. The next U.S. CPI release, covering June, is scheduled for July 14, 2026.