Germany's governing CDU/CSU–SPD coalition, polling at just 34.6% combined support, is attempting to exclude the AfD from power at every level of government — while the AfD's national polling has risen 7.1 percentage points since the strategy intensified. Polybius, Ibn Khaldun, and Peter Turchin all mapped this dynamic, and none of them found it ended well for the excluders.
A May 2026 Pew Research Center survey found a median 72% of Europeans believe their elected officials don't care what they think — and Gallup's simultaneous 20-year global trust review shows that collapse is concentrated precisely in mature liberal democracies. Read through the frameworks of Polybius, Aristotle, and Peter Turchin's structural-demographic analysis, the numbers tell a story that has played out before.
A record 12.7 million Chinese graduates and 40% youth-graduate unemployment in India look like a uniquely modern failure. Read Polybius, Ibn Khaldun and a modern data-scientist together, and the credential glut of 2026 is one of the oldest engines of upheaval there is — and history tells you, roughly, where it tends to go next.
Australia builds the world's biggest homes and reports steady life satisfaction — yet a generation feels it is falling behind. From Aristotle's stasis to the late Roman Republic, Tocqueville's paradox and Turchin's cliodynamics, the cyclical view of history says this rhyme is ancient, and dangerous.
Record housing unaffordability, a locked-out generation, and a two-party system fracturing as never before. It feels like a uniquely modern Australian malaise — but Aristotle, Polybius and a modern data-scientist would recognise every symptom.
The $39 trillion debt feels modern and the crisis feels new. Read Polybius, Plato and a modern data-scientist together, and the pattern is unmistakable — and so, roughly, is where it tends to go next.
