As the Senate prepares to vote on the National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026[4]National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026 – Parliament of Australia“Senate Community Affairs Legislation Committee reporting date: 23 June 2026; referred 14 May 2026” before the winter recess on July 2, the evidence gathered at three days of public hearings — and confirmed by the government's own officials — ought to give every senator pause. This bill deserves to be rejected, or at minimum substantially amended, before a single vote is cast.
The case is not ideological. It rests on what the government itself has admitted.
What Did the Government Actually Confirm?
At the Senate Community Affairs Legislation Committee hearings in the week of June 9, Health, Disability and Ageing first assistant secretary Anthea Long confirmed that 240,000 current participants are expected to leave the scheme by mid-2031, and that a further 110,000 Australians who would otherwise have joined will instead be diverted to other programs[1]The NDIS Inquiry Has Wrapped Up. The Report is Coming Tomorrow.“Long confirmed that 240,000 people are expected to leave the scheme by mid-2031, and 110,000 who would have joined will be diverted — around 350,000 fewer people on the NDIS; figures cannot be broken down by state, territory, or region; assessment thresholds have not been settled”. That is approximately 350,000[1]The NDIS Inquiry Has Wrapped Up. The Report is Coming Tomorrow.“Long confirmed that 240,000 people are expected to leave the scheme by mid-2031, and 110,000 who would have joined will be diverted — around 350,000 fewer people on the NDIS; figures cannot be broken down by state, territory, or region; assessment thresholds have not been settled” fewer people on the NDIS than if the existing settings were left unchanged.
By the numbers
- 350,000 — net reduction in NDIS participants by 2031 (240,000 exits + 110,000 diverted)
- 50% — cut to participation support budgets from October 2026 under Part 4
- 10% — cut to capacity building daily activity allocations from October 2026
- 4,000+ — public submissions received; fewer than 440 published before hearings began
- 3 — number of times the committee's reporting deadline was extended
Long told the committee those figures could not yet be broken down by state, territory, or by regional and remote areas, and that the exact assessment thresholds for access have not been settled.[1]The NDIS Inquiry Has Wrapped Up. The Report is Coming Tomorrow.“Long confirmed that 240,000 people are expected to leave the scheme by mid-2031, and 110,000 who would have joined will be diverted — around 350,000 fewer people on the NDIS; figures cannot be broken down by state, territory, or region; assessment thresholds have not been settled” Read that again: the government knows it will reduce scheme participation by 350,000 people, but cannot tell you who, where, or under what rules.
That is not a basis for legislation. That is the announcement of an outcome in search of a design.
What Is the 15-Month Gap Nobody Can Fill?
The sequencing problem inside this bill is its most damning feature. As Advocacy for Inclusion[3]NDIS Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026 – Advocacy for Inclusion“Participation support budgets are cut from October 2026. The functional capacity assessment framework does not commence until January 2028. Foundational Supports are not yet designed, not yet funded, and not yet operational.” argued in its submission, participation support budgets are cut from October 2026, while the functional capacity assessment framework that will determine future eligibility does not commence until January 2028[3]NDIS Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026 – Advocacy for Inclusion“Participation support budgets are cut from October 2026. The functional capacity assessment framework does not commence until January 2028. Foundational Supports are not yet designed, not yet funded, and not yet operational.”. The Foundational Supports meant to replace what is cut are not yet designed, not yet funded in practice, and not yet operational[3]NDIS Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026 – Advocacy for Inclusion“Participation support budgets are cut from October 2026. The functional capacity assessment framework does not commence until January 2028. Foundational Supports are not yet designed, not yet funded, and not yet operational.”.
Mark Butler's response on Insiders on June 14, when asked directly what adjustments the evidence had prompted, was that he did not want to pre-empt the committee's report — and that what counts as